The Copy Sim · Whale-mirror paper record

Five whale wallets, mirrored trade for trade — on paper.

The Copy Sim watches five of Polymarket's biggest wallets and mirrors their buys with a flat $25 of paper money, under fixed rules, checked every hour. Nothing here is real money, and nothing here is a feed to follow — it is a public experiment in what copying actually earns once you are not the whale. Figures as of November 2, 2026.

The Copy Sim record

Paper record — not a copy feed

Started October 26, 2026 Bank $1,000 Closed 43 (28W / 15L) Win rate 65.1% Realized +$416.64 (+41.66%) Cash $1,266.64 Open 6 ($150.00 at cost) Copy-gap -$135.60

Read this first. This is a paper record, not financial advice and not a signal service. The sim is up +41.66% in its first week — and the honest companion number is further down this page: the identical strategy with every fill priced about 15 seconds late (the Reality twin) is down 11.47%. A real follower is always late. Nobody should copy these trades expecting profit.

What it is

Copy-trading is usually sold with screenshots of the whale's wins. We wanted the follower's version instead: what happens to a small account that copies big wallets mechanically — same entries, same exits, no judgement calls. So the sim takes the five wallets below, waits for a real buy of $500 or more, and mirrors it with $25. It runs until the balance falls under $200 (BUSTED) or we stop it. Every trade it has ever placed — open and closed — is listed on this page.

Who we copy

Watch list as of November 2, 2026
WalletAddressWhat they tradeWeek to Nov 2, 2026
googleplay 0xe9b710551dd82a44e79203c2394a2b10163ace7b NBA first — every one of his 193 live buys in the study window sat inside the 0.30–0.65 mid-band; never sells +$3,948,155.98 on $28,130,622.26 volume — #1 on the board; joined Nov 2, 2026
BreakTheBank 0xf0318c32136c2db7fec88b84869aee6a1106c80c US sports, politics and long-dated futures — the only wallet whose SELLs ever trigger our exits +$3,096,927.70 on $41,733,411.80 volume
UpTheBlues 0x2a69660046d7acc4ab204d7cc5ba78b0776cd2f7 Tennis (WTA-heavy) and soccer; buys favourites and sometimes both sides of the same match +$1,400,845.41 on $40,541,956.85 volume
jakepaulthegoat2008 0x6ac5bb06a9eb05641fd5e82640268b92f3ab4b6e Esports — CS2 first, League of Legends second; ladders into positions with repeat buys and never sells +$1,259,706.75 on $22,188,023.43 volume
Abkhauae 0x7c75be8139d0e333e7c8c2e17b53575ef0804d1d Politics only — accumulates for months, then sells at about 0.99 near the decision (the board now shows the name as “Abkha”) +$1,074,455.77 on $2,308,364.75 volume

How the list is picked. Every Monday the watch list refreshes from Polymarket's weekly profit leaderboard — the top 8 named wallets (an unnamed address can't be followed or studied, so it is skipped). On Nov 2, 2026 googleplay joined at #1 and eventalpha26 (0x2e7bf3e7b8ba0351b737897197fd5cc34fbfbd8c) dropped off — it held no open mirrors, so nothing had to be managed out. One name you won't see: the market maker BoneOhio is not on the weekly board, so he is not copied; he joins only if he appears on it.

The rules — exactly as the sim runs them

RuleDetail
TriggerA watched wallet makes a TRADE BUY worth $500 or more (usdcSize ≥ $500) on Polymarket.
Our entryMirror $25 flat — never more, never less — at the current market price at check time, plus 1¢. We record both the whale's fill and ours.
One per positionSkip if we already mirror that wallet + market + outcome. Repeat buys by the whale (laddering) do not add to our position.
Max open6 mirrors at once. A seventh signal waits until a slot frees up.
No last-minute entriesSkip any market ending within 1 hour — no time for the position to mean anything.
No cash, no tradeSkip if cash on hand is under $25.
ExitsThree ways out: (1) the whale SELLs the same market + outcome (or redeems after resolution) — we sell at the best bid minus 1¢; (2) the market resolves — winners pay $1.00 per share, losers $0; (3) hard stop — any mirror still open after 7 days is sold at market.
ChecksEvery hour, around the clock.
Busted lineIf the balance falls under $200 the sim is marked BUSTED and the final record stands.

The risk, plainly

MeasureFigure
Stake per trade$25 flat
Share of the $1,000 bank per position2.5%
Most that can be exposed at once (6 open)$150 — 15% of the bank
Worst week possibleAll 6 open mirrors lose in full: -$150 (-15%)
Biggest single win so far+$153.57 (K27 — one longshot carries a third of the total profit)
Real money at riskNone. Paper only.

Copy-gap, explained. The copy-gap is (our entry price − the whale's entry price) × our shares. A negative total — ours is -$135.60 — means that, on paper, we entered cheaper than the whales overall. It is not profit, and we don't count it as any. Mostly it means prices happened to fall after the whales bought and before our hourly check ran — which also means the markets were moving against those positions. It is luck in the timing, not an edge, and it can flip sign in a week.

Open mirrors right now

6 open · $150.00 at cost · as of November 2, 2026
WhaleMarketOutcomeWhale priceOur entrySharesCopy-gapMarket ends
jakepaulthegoat2008 will-genptg-win-worlds-2026 Yes $0.44 $0.45 55.56 +$0.56 2026-11-29 04:59 UTC
BreakTheBank will-the-republicans-win-the-iowa-senate-race-in-2026 No $0.41 $0.44 56.82 +$1.70 2026-11-04 04:59 UTC
BreakTheBank will-the-republicans-win-the-texas-senate-race-in-2026 Yes $0.31 $0.34 73.53 +$2.21 2026-11-04 04:59 UTC
BreakTheBank will-the-democratic-party-control-the-house-after-the-2026-midterm-elections No $0.07 $0.09 277.78 +$5.56 2026-11-04 04:59 UTC
BreakTheBank will-the-democrats-win-the-iowa-senate-race-in-2026 Yes $0.44 $0.43 58.14 -$0.58 2026-11-04 04:59 UTC
BreakTheBank will-the-republicans-win-the-maine-senate-race-in-2026 No $0.67 $0.69 36.23 +$0.72 2026-11-04 04:59 UTC

Every closed trade

43 closed · 28W / 15L · realized +$416.64 · as of November 2, 2026
#WhaleMarketOutcomeEntryExitProceedsP/LClosed
1 jakepaulthegoat2008 cs2-tl1-lgc-2026-10-26 Legacy $0.38 Resolved — Liquid won $0.00 $-25.00 Oct 26, 2026
2 UpTheBlues atp-machac-minaur-2026-10-26 Alex de Minaur $0.38 Resolved — de Minaur won $65.79 +$40.79 Oct 26, 2026
3 jakepaulthegoat2008 lol-t1-cfo-2026-10-26 T1 $0.90 Resolved — T1 won $27.78 +$2.78 Oct 26, 2026
4 jakepaulthegoat2008 lol-los-tsw-2026-10-26 Team Secret Whales $0.70 Resolved — LOS won $0.00 $-25.00 Oct 26, 2026
5 jakepaulthegoat2008 lol-los-tsw-2026-10-26-game-handicap-home-1pt5 Team Secret Whales $0.42 Resolved — LOS won $0.00 $-25.00 Oct 26, 2026
6 jakepaulthegoat2008 lol-tl2-al-2026-10-26 Team Liquid $0.28 Resolved — Team Liquid won $89.29 +$64.29 Oct 26, 2026
7 jakepaulthegoat2008 lol-tl2-al-2026-10-26 Anyone's Legend $0.75 Resolved — Team Liquid won $0.00 $-25.00 Oct 26, 2026
8 UpTheBlues wta-silva-papamic-2026-10-26 Nauhany Leme Da Silva $0.37 Resolved — Silva won $67.57 +$42.57 Oct 26, 2026
9 BreakTheBank will-oklahoma-city-thunder-win-the-2027-nba-finals Yes $0.19 Whale SELL @ $0.17 — sold at $0.15 $19.74 $-5.26 Oct 26, 2026
10 BreakTheBank nfl-dal-phi-2026-10-27-total-44pt5 Over $0.48 Resolved — Over won $52.41 +$27.41 Oct 26, 2026
11 BreakTheBank nfl-dal-phi-2026-10-27-total-42pt5 Over $0.56 Resolved — Over won $44.48 +$19.48 Oct 26, 2026
12 jakepaulthegoat2008 nba-mem-uta-2026-10-26 Grizzlies $0.51 Resolved — Grizzlies won $49.02 +$24.02 Oct 26, 2026
13 BreakTheBank nba-mem-uta-2026-10-26 Grizzlies $0.52 Resolved — Grizzlies won $48.08 +$23.08 Oct 26, 2026
14 UpTheBlues wta-joint-cirstea-2026-10-26 Sorana Cirstea $0.61 Resolved — Joint won $0.00 $-25.00 Oct 26, 2026
15 UpTheBlues wta-joint-cirstea-2026-10-26 Maya Joint $0.54 Resolved — Joint won $46.30 +$21.30 Oct 26, 2026
16 UpTheBlues atp-jasika-muller-2026-10-26 Omar Jasika $0.60 Resolved — Jasika won $41.67 +$16.67 Oct 26, 2026
17 UpTheBlues atp-langmo-vukic-2026-10-26 Christian Langmo $0.09 Resolved — Vukic won $0.00 $-25.00 Oct 26, 2026
18 UpTheBlues atp-jasika-muller-2026-10-26 Alexandre Muller $0.43 Resolved — Jasika won $0.00 $-25.00 Oct 26, 2026
19 UpTheBlues wta-sasnovi-bartunk-2026-10-25 Aliaksandra Sasnovich $0.67 Resolved — Sasnovich won $37.31 +$12.31 Oct 27, 2026
20 jakepaulthegoat2008 cs2-b8-k271-2026-10-27 K27 $0.14 Resolved — K27 won $178.57 +$153.57 Oct 27, 2026
21 UpTheBlues acle-shp-con-2026-10-27-total-3pt5 Over $0.40 Resolved — Over won $62.50 +$37.50 Oct 27, 2026
22 jakepaulthegoat2008 cs2-tl1-aur1-2026-10-27 Aurora Gaming $0.77 Resolved — Aurora Gaming won $32.47 +$7.47 Oct 27, 2026
23 jakepaulthegoat2008 cs2-mglz-lgc-2026-10-27 TheMongolz $0.46 Resolved — TheMongolz won $54.35 +$29.35 Oct 27, 2026
24 jakepaulthegoat2008 cs2-ast10-fnc-2026-10-27 Astralis $0.42 Resolved — fnatic won $0.00 $-25.00 Oct 27, 2026
25 UpTheBlues azec-gab-emi-2026-10-27-emi No $1.00 Resolved — No won $25.08 +$0.08 Oct 27, 2026
26 jakepaulthegoat2008 cs2-envy-gl1-2026-10-27 GamerLegion $0.39 Resolved — GamerLegion won $64.10 +$39.10 Oct 27, 2026
27 jakepaulthegoat2008 nba-bkn-bos-2026-10-27 Celtics $0.86 Resolved — Celtics won $29.07 +$4.07 Oct 27, 2026
28 jakepaulthegoat2008 nba-por-lal-2026-10-27 Trail Blazers $0.48 Resolved — Trail Blazers won $52.08 +$27.08 Oct 28, 2026
29 BreakTheBank will-oklahoma-city-thunder-win-the-2027-nba-finals Yes $0.17 Whale SELL @ $0.18 — sold at $0.16 $23.53 $-1.47 Oct 28, 2026
30 jakepaulthegoat2008 lol-mkoi-t1-2026-10-29-game-handicap-home-1pt5 T1 $0.61 Resolved — T1 won $40.98 +$15.98 Oct 28, 2026
31 jakepaulthegoat2008 lol-ig1-ly-2026-10-28 Invictus Gaming $0.68 Resolved — Invictus Gaming won $36.76 +$11.76 Oct 28, 2026
32 jakepaulthegoat2008 lol-ig1-ly-2026-10-28-game2 Invictus Gaming $0.53 Resolved — LYON won $0.00 $-25.00 Oct 28, 2026
33 jakepaulthegoat2008 cs2-fut-nemi1-2026-10-29 Nemiga $0.32 Resolved — Nemiga won $78.13 +$53.13 Oct 29, 2026
34 jakepaulthegoat2008 cs2-vit-navi-2026-10-29-map-handicap-away-1pt5 Vitality $0.12 Resolved — Natus Vincere won $0.00 $-25.00 Oct 29, 2026
35 jakepaulthegoat2008 lol-kc-cfo-2026-10-29 Karmine Corp $0.83 Resolved — Karmine Corp won $30.12 +$5.12 Oct 29, 2026
36 jakepaulthegoat2008 lol-tes-blg-2026-10-28-game2 Bilibili Gaming $0.65 Resolved — Top Esports won $0.00 $-25.00 Oct 29, 2026
37 BreakTheBank will-an-independent-win-the-nebraska-senate-race-in-2026 No $0.70 Whale SELL @ $0.73 — sold at $0.72 $25.71 +$0.71 Oct 31, 2026
38 jakepaulthegoat2008 cs2-nemi1-furia-2026-10-31 FURIA $0.74 Resolved — FURIA won $33.78 +$8.78 Oct 31, 2026
39 jakepaulthegoat2008 lol-kc-mkoi-2026-10-31 Karmine Corp $0.62 Resolved — Karmine Corp won $40.32 +$15.32 Oct 31, 2026
40 jakepaulthegoat2008 lol-los-ly-2026-10-31-game2 LYON $0.60 Resolved — LYON won $41.67 +$16.67 Oct 31, 2026
41 jakepaulthegoat2008 nba-cle-mil-2026-10-31 Bucks $0.26 Resolved — Cavaliers won $0.00 $-25.00 Oct 31, 2026
42 UpTheBlues wta-andrees-monnet-2026-10-31 Bianca Andreescu $0.86 Resolved — Andreescu won $29.07 +$4.07 Oct 31, 2026
43 BreakTheBank will-san-antonio-spurs-win-the-2027-nba-finals Yes $0.23 Whale SELL @ $0.24 — sold at $0.22 $23.91 $-1.09 Nov 1, 2026

Every mirror stakes the same $25.00. “Resolved” means the market settled and paid $1.00 per share on the winning side, $0 on the losing side; “Whale SELL” means the copied wallet sold first and we followed it out.

The Reality twin — what 15 seconds of delay does

Paper record — not a copy feed

Started October 28, 2026 Closed 20 (9W / 11L) Realized -$114.72 (-11.47%) Cash $735.28 Open 6 ($150.00 at cost) Total lag cost $15.48

The same rules, a quarter of a minute late. Copier's Reality runs the identical strategy, except every fill is priced about 15 seconds after the whale's trade — closer to what any real follower could actually get. On Nov 2, 2026 it stands at -$114.72 (-11.47%) against the parent sim's +$416.64. Two honest caveats: the twin started two days later (Oct 28), so it holds a different, smaller set of trades and never got the K27 longshot that banked a third of the parent's profit — it is not the same trades at worse prices. But inside its own set the pattern is still ugly: its mid-priced mirrors (entries 0.30–0.65) went 3 wins from 11 for -$109.36, where the parent's same band made +$274.45. Delay doesn't just shave the edge — at follower speeds, the edge may not be there at all. That is the standing warning label on the +41.66% headline.

Twin open mirrorsOutcomeWhale priceTwin fill (lagged)SharesMarket ends
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
BreakTheBank
No $0.07 $0.09 294.12 Nov 4, 2026
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
BreakTheBank
No $0.31 $0.33 76.92 Nov 4, 2026
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
BreakTheBank
Yes $0.07 $0.09 294.12 Nov 4, 2026
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
Abkhauae
Yes $0.43 $0.44 56.75 Apr 19, 2027
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
BreakTheBank
No $0.76 $0.76 32.89 Nov 3, 2026
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
BreakTheBank
No $0.40 $0.43 58.82 Nov 4, 2026
#WhaleMarketOutcomeFillExitPayoutP/LClosed
1 UpTheBlues Sioux Falls: Jenson Brooksby vs Dylan Dietrich Dylan Dietrich $0.86 Resolved — paid $1.00/share $29.24 +$4.24 Oct 28, 2026
2 UpTheBlues Pan Pacific Open: Alycia Parks vs Kimberly Birrell Alycia Parks $0.71 Resolved — paid $1.00/share $35.46 +$10.46 Oct 28, 2026
3 UpTheBlues Seoul: Sho Shimabukuro vs Jay Dylan Friend Jay Dylan Friend $0.38 Resolved — paid $0.00/share $0.00 $-25.00 Oct 28, 2026
4 BreakTheBank Lakers vs. Clippers Clippers $0.52 Resolved — paid $0.00/share $0.00 $-25.00 Oct 29, 2026
5 UpTheBlues Seoul: Terence Atmane vs Taro Daniel Terence Atmane $0.87 Resolved — paid $1.00/share $28.90 +$3.90 Oct 29, 2026
6 jakepaulthegoat2008 Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Nemiga (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Playoffs Nemiga $0.32 Resolved — paid $1.00/share $79.37 +$54.37 Oct 29, 2026
7 jakepaulthegoat2008 Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs Nemiga (+1.5) Nemiga $0.60 Resolved — paid $1.00/share $42.02 +$17.02 Oct 29, 2026
8 jakepaulthegoat2008 Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Vitality $0.44 Resolved — paid $0.00/share $0.00 $-25.00 Oct 29, 2026
9 jakepaulthegoat2008 Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Playoffs Aurora Gaming $0.39 Resolved — paid $0.00/share $0.00 $-25.00 Oct 29, 2026
10 jakepaulthegoat2008 LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage Bilibili Gaming $0.77 Resolved — paid $0.00/share $0.00 $-25.00 Oct 29, 2026
11 BreakTheBank Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? Yes $0.72 Whale SELL — exit fill $0.695 $24.06 $-0.94 Oct 31, 2026
12 BreakTheBank Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? No $0.70 Whale SELL — exit fill $0.720 $25.64 +$0.64 Oct 31, 2026
13 UpTheBlues Will Norwich City FC win on 2026-10-31? Yes $0.66 Resolved — paid $1.00/share $38.17 +$13.17 Oct 31, 2026
14 UpTheBlues Will Feyenoord Rotterdam vs. Fortuna Sittard end in a draw? No $0.91 Resolved — paid $0.00/share $0.00 $-25.00 Oct 31, 2026
15 UpTheBlues PSV vs. Willem II Tilburg: O/U 4.5 Under $0.54 Resolved — paid $0.00/share $0.00 $-25.00 Oct 31, 2026
16 UpTheBlues Spread: Hornets (-1.5) Hornets $0.48 Resolved — paid $0.00/share $0.00 $-25.00 Oct 31, 2026
17 UpTheBlues Sioux Falls: Liam Draxl vs Sebastian Dominko Liam Draxl $0.57 Resolved — paid $1.00/share $44.25 +$19.25 Oct 31, 2026
18 UpTheBlues Queretaro: Tatjana Maria vs Fiona Ferro Fiona Ferro $0.47 Resolved — paid $0.00/share $0.00 $-25.00 Oct 31, 2026
19 UpTheBlues Falcons vs. Buccaneers Falcons $0.46 Resolved — paid $0.00/share $0.00 $-25.00 Nov 1, 2026
20 UpTheBlues Sioux Falls: Dylan Dietrich vs Liam Draxl Dylan Dietrich $0.66 Resolved — paid $1.00/share $38.17 +$13.17 Nov 1, 2026

Twin stakes are the same $25.00 flat. Settlement payouts are identical to the parent's (lag doesn't change who won); the lag shows up in the entry fill, and in the two whale-SELL exits, in the exit fill too.